Celtic
Celta Vigo
Celtic – Celta Vigo
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 22, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 47 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.74 – 1.27
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58 %
- Both teams to score
- 60 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Celtic at home (47 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.74 goals for Celtic and 1.27 for Celta Vigo. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 35 %. Over their last five matches, Celtic took 6 points and Celta Vigo 7 points. Over 2.5 goals: 58 %. Both teams to score: 60 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Celtic | 2.70 | 35 % | +26.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.48 | 28 % | -14.8 % |
| 2Celta Vigo | 2.58 | 37 % | -26.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Celtic
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Celta Vigo
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Celtic – Celta Vigo?
Our model gives 1 · Celtic a 47 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Celtic win 47 %, draw 25 %, Celta Vigo win 29 %.
What is the most likely score for Celtic – Celta Vigo?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.