Al Ahli
Al Khaleej
Al Ahli – Al Khaleej
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 21, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 80 %
- Most likely score
- 2-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.83 – 0.79
- Over 2.5 goals
- 70 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Al Ahli at home (80 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.83 goals for Al Ahli and 0.79 for Al Khaleej. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 73 %. Over their last five matches, Al Ahli took 13 points and Al Khaleej 9 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for Al Ahli, 1 draw, 0 wins for Al Khaleej. Over 2.5 goals: 70 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Ahli | 1.30 | 73 % | +4.0 % |
| XDraw | 5.75 | 16 % | -21.2 % |
| 2Al Khaleej | 8.50 | 11 % | -46.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Al Ahli
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Al Khaleej
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 4 wins
- Al Ahli
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Al Khaleej
- Al Khaleej1-4Al Ahli
- Al Ahli4-1Al Khaleej
- Al Ahli2-2Al Khaleej
- Al Khaleej0-3Al Ahli
- Al Ahli1-0Al Khaleej
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Al Ahli – Al Khaleej?
Our model gives 1 · Al Ahli a 80 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Al Ahli win 80 %, draw 14 %, Al Khaleej win 6 %.
What is the most likely score for Al Ahli – Al Khaleej?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.