1. FC Union Berlin
08:30 PM
Sep 11
Schalke 04
1. FC Union Berlin – Schalke 04
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:43 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.47 – 1.43
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55 %
- Both teams to score
- 59 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards 1. FC Union Berlin at home (38 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.47 goals for 1. FC Union Berlin and 1.43 for Schalke 04. Bookmakers say the same thing: 41 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, 1. FC Union Berlin took 10 points and Schalke 04 7 points. Over 2.5 goals: 55 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11. FC Union Berlin | 2.27 | 41 % | -14.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.33 | 28 % | -9.3 % |
| 2Schalke 04 | 3.10 | 30 % | +9.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
1. FC Union Berlin
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Schalke 04
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| 1. FC Union Berlin | Form and statistics | Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| 1529 | Elo | 1582 |
| 2.00 | Goals scored / match | 1.70 |
| 2.10 | Goals conceded / match | 1.20 |
| 14.3 | Shots / match | 15.4 |
| 30 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win 1. FC Union Berlin – Schalke 04?
Our model gives 1 · 1. FC Union Berlin a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: 1. FC Union Berlin win 38 %, draw 27 %, Schalke 04 win 35 %.
What is the most likely score for 1. FC Union Berlin – Schalke 04?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
