1. FC Union Berlin
1-3
Schalke 04
1. FC Union Berlin – Schalke 04
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:43 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 38 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.47 – 1.43
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: 1. FC Union Berlin 1-3 Schalke 04. The model predicted a win for 1. FC Union Berlin (38 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.47 goals for 1. FC Union Berlin and 1.43 for Schalke 04. Bookmakers say the same thing: 41 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, 1. FC Union Berlin took 10 points and Schalke 04 7 points. Over 2.5 goals: 55 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11. FC Union Berlin | 2.27 | 41 % | -14.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.33 | 28 % | -9.3 % |
| 2Schalke 04 | 3.10 | 30 % | +9.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
1. FC Union Berlin
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Schalke 04
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of 1. FC Union Berlin – Schalke 04?
Final score: 1. FC Union Berlin 1-3 Schalke 04. The model predicted a win for 1. FC Union Berlin (38 %): missed prediction.
Who will win 1. FC Union Berlin – Schalke 04?
Our model gives 1 · 1. FC Union Berlin a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: 1. FC Union Berlin win 38 %, draw 27 %, Schalke 04 win 35 %.