Burgos
3-1
Ceuta
Burgos – Ceuta
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:43 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 55 %
- Most likely score
- 1-014 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.57 – 0.83
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Burgos 3-1 Ceuta. The model predicted a win for Burgos (55 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.57 goals for Burgos and 0.83 for Ceuta. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 60 %. Over their last five matches, Burgos took 8 points and Ceuta 3 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Burgos, 1 draw, 1 win for Ceuta. Over 2.5 goals: 43 %. Both teams to score: 45 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Burgos | 1.58 | 60 % | -13.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.95 | 24 % | +1.7 % |
| 2Ceuta | 5.75 | 16 % | +12.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Burgos
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Ceuta
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Burgos
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Ceuta
- Burgos1-1Ceuta
- Ceuta1-0Burgos
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Burgos – Ceuta?
Final score: Burgos 3-1 Ceuta. The model predicted a win for Burgos (55 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Burgos – Ceuta?
Our model gives 1 · Burgos a 55 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Burgos win 55 %, draw 26 %, Ceuta win 20 %.