Predictions are closed for this match.
Burgos
08:30 PM
Sep 11
Ceuta
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Burgos | 1.58 | 60 % | -13.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.95 | 24 % | +1.7 % |
| 2Ceuta | 5.75 | 16 % | +12.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Burgos
Ceuta
| Burgos | Form and statistics | Ceuta |
|---|---|---|
| 1573 | Elo | 1451 |
| 1.00 | Goals scored / match | 0.80 |
| 0.60 | Goals conceded / match | 1.80 |
| 11.5 | Shots / match | 10.3 |
| 40 % | Win rate | 30 % |
| 5 | Rest days | 6 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:43 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Burgos a 55 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Burgos win 55 %, draw 26 %, Ceuta win 20 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 14 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 43 %, and both teams scoring at 45 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.58 for Burgos, 3.95 for the draw, 5.75 for Ceuta.
Kick-off is scheduled for Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:30 PM (LaLiga 2), at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío.
The model leans towards Burgos at home (55 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.57 goals for Burgos and 0.83 for Ceuta. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 60 %. Over their last five matches, Burgos took 8 points and Ceuta 3 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Burgos, 1 draw, 1 win for Ceuta. Over 2.5 goals: 43 %. Both teams to score: 45 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
Nobody has voted yet. Be the first.
