Dinamo Zagreb
NEC Nijmegen
Dinamo Zagreb – NEC Nijmegen
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 22, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 46 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.66 – 1.27
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56 %
- Both teams to score
- 59 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Dinamo Zagreb at home (46 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.66 goals for Dinamo Zagreb and 1.27 for NEC Nijmegen. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 59 %. Over their last five matches, Dinamo Zagreb took 8 points and NEC Nijmegen 4 points. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Dinamo Zagreb | 1.62 | 59 % | -25.9 % |
| XDraw | 4.30 | 22 % | +7.4 % |
| 2NEC Nijmegen | 5.00 | 19 % | +46.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Dinamo Zagreb
- Last 5 matches
- At home
NEC Nijmegen
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Dinamo Zagreb – NEC Nijmegen?
Our model gives 1 · Dinamo Zagreb a 46 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Dinamo Zagreb win 46 %, draw 25 %, NEC Nijmegen win 29 %.
What is the most likely score for Dinamo Zagreb – NEC Nijmegen?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.