AZ Alkmaar
1-1
Willem II
AZ Alkmaar – Willem II
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:43 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 87 %
- Most likely score
- 3-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 3.75 – 0.69
The short version
Final score: AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Willem II. The model predicted a win for AZ Alkmaar (87 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 3-0. It expects 3.75 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 0.69 for Willem II. Bookmakers say the same thing: 83 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, AZ Alkmaar took 15 points and Willem II 1 point. In recent meetings: 1 win for AZ Alkmaar, 0 draws, 1 win for Willem II. Over 2.5 goals: 82 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1AZ Alkmaar | 1.14 | 83 % | -1.1 % |
| XDraw | 8.75 | 11 % | -17.8 % |
| 2Willem II | 15.00 | 6 % | -41.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
AZ Alkmaar
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Willem II
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- AZ Alkmaar
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Willem II
- Willem II0-2AZ Alkmaar
- AZ Alkmaar1-2Willem II
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of AZ Alkmaar – Willem II?
Final score: AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Willem II. The model predicted a win for AZ Alkmaar (87 %): missed prediction.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar – Willem II?
Our model gives 1 · AZ Alkmaar a 87 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: AZ Alkmaar win 87 %, draw 9 %, Willem II win 4 %.