Predictions are closed for this match.
AZ Alkmaar
08:00 PM
Sep 11
Willem II
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1AZ Alkmaar | 1.14 | 83 % | -1.1 % |
| XDraw | 8.75 | 11 % | -17.8 % |
| 2Willem II | 15.00 | 6 % | -41.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
AZ Alkmaar
Willem II
| AZ Alkmaar | Form and statistics | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| 1712 | Elo | 1367 |
| 2.70 | Goals scored / match | 1.60 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded / match | 2.40 |
| 18.0 | Shots / match | 12.9 |
| 60 % | Win rate | 10 % |
| 5 | Rest days | 5 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:43 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · AZ Alkmaar a 87 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: AZ Alkmaar win 87 %, draw 9 %, Willem II win 4 %.
The most likely score is 3-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 82 %, and both teams scoring at 49 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.14 for AZ Alkmaar, 8.75 for the draw, 15.00 for Willem II.
Kick-off is scheduled for Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (Eredivisie), at AFAS Stadion.
The model leans towards AZ Alkmaar at home (87 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 3-0. It expects 3.75 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 0.69 for Willem II. Bookmakers say the same thing: 83 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, AZ Alkmaar took 15 points and Willem II 1 point. In recent meetings: 1 win for AZ Alkmaar, 0 draws, 1 win for Willem II. Over 2.5 goals: 82 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
Nobody has voted yet. Be the first.
