Toluca
Tijuana
Toluca – Tijuana
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 21, 07:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 64 %
- Most likely score
- 2-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.18 – 0.96
The short version
Final score: Toluca 2-2 Tijuana. The model predicted a win for Toluca (64 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.18 goals for Toluca and 0.96 for Tijuana. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 69 %. Over their last five matches, Toluca took 5 points and Tijuana 3 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for Toluca, 1 draw, 0 wins for Tijuana. Over 2.5 goals: 61 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Toluca | 1.36 | 69 % | -12.9 % |
| XDraw | 5.50 | 17 % | +16.6 % |
| 2Tijuana | 7.00 | 13 % | +3.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Toluca
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Tijuana
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 4 wins
- Toluca
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Tijuana
- Toluca1-0Tijuana
- Tijuana0-0Toluca
- Tijuana2-4Toluca
- Toluca4-0Tijuana
- Toluca2-0Tijuana
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Toluca – Tijuana?
Final score: Toluca 2-2 Tijuana. The model predicted a win for Toluca (64 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Toluca – Tijuana?
Our model gives 1 · Toluca a 64 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Toluca win 64 %, draw 21 %, Tijuana win 15 %.