Montpellier
1-0
Pau
Montpellier – Pau
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:43 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 48 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.50 – 1.02
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Montpellier 1-0 Pau. The model predicted a win for Montpellier (48 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.50 goals for Montpellier and 1.02 for Pau. Bookmakers say the same thing: 51 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Montpellier took 8 points and Pau 5 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Montpellier, 1 draw, 1 win for Pau. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Montpellier | 1.79 | 51 % | -14.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.42 | 27 % | -9.1 % |
| 2Pau | 4.25 | 22 % | +9.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Montpellier
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Pau
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Montpellier
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Pau
- Pau0-0Montpellier
- Montpellier0-1Pau
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Montpellier – Pau?
Final score: Montpellier 1-0 Pau. The model predicted a win for Montpellier (48 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Montpellier – Pau?
Our model gives 1 · Montpellier a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Montpellier win 48 %, draw 27 %, Pau win 26 %.