Real Madrid
RB Leipzig
Real Madrid – RB Leipzig
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 21, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 68 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.54 – 1.22
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Real Madrid 4-1 RB Leipzig. The model predicted a win for Real Madrid (68 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.54 goals for Real Madrid and 1.22 for RB Leipzig. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 77 %. Over their last five matches, Real Madrid took 12 points and RB Leipzig 9 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Real Madrid, 1 draw, 1 win for RB Leipzig. Over 2.5 goals: 72 %. Both teams to score: 65 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Real Madrid | 1.24 | 77 % | -16.3 % |
| XDraw | 6.75 | 14 % | +7.9 % |
| 2RB Leipzig | 10.25 | 9 % | +67.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Real Madrid
- Last 5 matches
- At home
RB Leipzig
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Real Madrid
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- RB Leipzig
- Real Madrid1-1RB Leipzig
- RB Leipzig0-1Real Madrid
- RB Leipzig3-2Real Madrid
- Real Madrid2-0RB Leipzig
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Real Madrid – RB Leipzig?
Final score: Real Madrid 4-1 RB Leipzig. The model predicted a win for Real Madrid (68 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Real Madrid – RB Leipzig?
Our model gives 1 · Real Madrid a 68 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Real Madrid win 68 %, draw 16 %, RB Leipzig win 16 %.