Predictions are closed for this match.
BK Häcken
07:00 PM
Sep 11
Mjällby AIF
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1BK Häcken | 1.52 | 62 % | -27.2 % |
| XDraw | 4.50 | 21 % | +21.8 % |
| 2Mjällby AIF | 5.50 | 17 % | +37.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
BK Häcken
Mjällby AIF
| BK Häcken | Form and statistics | Mjällby AIF |
|---|---|---|
| 1539 | Elo | 1533 |
| 1.30 | Goals scored / match | 0.60 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded / match | 2.20 |
| 13.7 | Shots / match | 6.1 |
| 30 % | Win rate | 10 % |
| 6 | Rest days | 4 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:43 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · BK Häcken a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: BK Häcken win 48 %, draw 27 %, Mjällby AIF win 25 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 52 %, and both teams scoring at 55 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.52 for BK Häcken, 4.50 for the draw, 5.50 for Mjällby AIF.
Kick-off is scheduled for Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:00 PM (Allsvenskan), at Bravida Arena.
The model leans towards BK Häcken at home (48 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.64 goals for BK Häcken and 1.14 for Mjällby AIF. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 62 %. Over their last five matches, BK Häcken took 7 points and Mjällby AIF no points. In recent meetings: 1 win for BK Häcken, 0 draws, 4 wins for Mjällby AIF. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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