Paris Saint-Germain
Barcelona
Paris Saint-Germain – Barcelona
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 19, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 53 %
- Most likely score
- 1-28 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.76 – 2.04
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Paris Saint-Germain 4-2 Barcelona. The model predicted a win for Barcelona (53 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.76 goals for Paris Saint-Germain and 2.04 for Barcelona. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 39 %. Over their last five matches, Paris Saint-Germain took 15 points and Barcelona 15 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Paris Saint-Germain, 1 draw, 1 win for Barcelona. Over 2.5 goals: 73 %. Both teams to score: 72 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Paris Saint-Germain | 2.45 | 39 % | -27.2 % |
| XDraw | 4.37 | 22 % | -23.5 % |
| 2Barcelona | 2.45 | 39 % | +29.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Paris Saint-Germain
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Barcelona
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Paris Saint-Germain
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Barcelona
- Barcelona1-2Paris Saint-Germain
- Barcelona1-4Paris Saint-Germain
- Paris Saint-Germain2-3Barcelona
- Paris Saint-Germain1-1Barcelona
- Barcelona1-4Paris Saint-Germain
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Paris Saint-Germain – Barcelona?
Final score: Paris Saint-Germain 4-2 Barcelona. The model predicted a win for Barcelona (53 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Paris Saint-Germain – Barcelona?
Our model gives 2 · Barcelona a 53 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Paris Saint-Germain win 30 %, draw 18 %, Barcelona win 53 %.