Liverpool
Villarreal
Liverpool – Villarreal
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 19, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 57 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.95 – 1.21
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Liverpool 4-3 Villarreal. The model predicted a win for Liverpool (57 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.95 goals for Liverpool and 1.21 for Villarreal. Bookmakers say the same thing: 62 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Liverpool took 12 points and Villarreal 10 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Liverpool, 0 draws, 0 wins for Villarreal. Over 2.5 goals: 61 %. Both teams to score: 60 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Liverpool | 1.54 | 62 % | -12.7 % |
| XDraw | 4.47 | 21 % | -18.0 % |
| 2Villarreal | 5.50 | 17 % | +36.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Liverpool
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Villarreal
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Liverpool
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Villarreal
- Villarreal2-3Liverpool
- Liverpool2-0Villarreal
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Liverpool – Villarreal?
Final score: Liverpool 4-3 Villarreal. The model predicted a win for Liverpool (57 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Liverpool – Villarreal?
Our model gives 1 · Liverpool a 57 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Liverpool win 57 %, draw 18 %, Villarreal win 25 %.