F.C. København
07:00 PM
Sep 11
AC Horsens
F.C. København – AC Horsens
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:43 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 2-09 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.97 – 0.88
- Over 2.5 goals
- 74 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards F.C. København at home (79 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.97 goals for F.C. København and 0.88 for AC Horsens. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 72 %. Over their last five matches, F.C. København took 12 points and AC Horsens 9 points. Over 2.5 goals: 74 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1F.C. København | 1.31 | 72 % | +4.1 % |
| XDraw | 5.50 | 17 % | -23.1 % |
| 2AC Horsens | 9.00 | 11 % | -41.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
F.C. København
- Last 5 matches
- At home
AC Horsens
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| F.C. København | Form and statistics | AC Horsens |
|---|---|---|
| 1701 | Elo | 1474 |
| 2.90 | Goals scored / match | 1.40 |
| 0.80 | Goals conceded / match | 1.50 |
| 16.4 | Shots / match | 10.0 |
| 80 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win F.C. København – AC Horsens?
Our model gives 1 · F.C. København a 79 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: F.C. København win 79 %, draw 14 %, AC Horsens win 7 %.
What is the most likely score for F.C. København – AC Horsens?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.