Predictions are closed for this match.
Empoli
07:00 PM
Sep 11
Arezzo
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Empoli | 1.98 | 47 % | -13.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.20 | 29 % | -6.6 % |
| 2Arezzo | 3.98 | 24 % | +7.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Empoli
Arezzo
| Empoli | Form and statistics | Arezzo |
|---|---|---|
| 1424 | Elo | 1482 |
| 0.80 | Goals scored / match | 1.20 |
| 1.10 | Goals conceded / match | 2.00 |
| 11.1 | Shots / match | 13.3 |
| 30 % | Win rate | 40 % |
| 5 | Rest days | 5 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:43 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Empoli a 44 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Empoli win 44 %, draw 29 %, Arezzo win 27 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 43 %, and both teams scoring at 48 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.98 for Empoli, 3.20 for the draw, 3.98 for Arezzo.
Kick-off is scheduled for Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:00 PM (Serie B), at Stadio Carlo Castellani - Computer Gross Arena.
The model leans towards Empoli at home (44 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.39 goals for Empoli and 1.02 for Arezzo. Bookmakers say the same thing: 47 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Empoli took 8 points and Arezzo 6 points. Over 2.5 goals: 43 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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