1. FC Nürnberg
06:30 PM
Sep 11
Hannover 96
1. FC Nürnberg – Hannover 96
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:43 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.84 – 1.37
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62 %
- Both teams to score
- 63 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards 1. FC Nürnberg at home (45 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.84 goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.37 for Hannover 96. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 37 %. Over their last five matches, 1. FC Nürnberg took 11 points and Hannover 96 7 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for 1. FC Nürnberg, 2 draws, 2 wins for Hannover 96. Over 2.5 goals: 62 %. Both teams to score: 63 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11. FC Nürnberg | 2.52 | 37 % | +13.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.83 | 25 % | -5.7 % |
| 2Hannover 96 | 2.50 | 38 % | -24.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
1. FC Nürnberg
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Hannover 96
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| 1. FC Nürnberg | Form and statistics | Hannover 96 |
|---|---|---|
| 1559 | Elo | 1581 |
| 2.30 | Goals scored / match | 2.40 |
| 1.10 | Goals conceded / match | 1.60 |
| 15.2 | Shots / match | 18.1 |
| 50 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- 1. FC Nürnberg
- 2 draws
- 2 wins
- Hannover 96
- Hannover 963-31. FC Nürnberg
- 1. FC Nürnberg2-1Hannover 96
- 1. FC Nürnberg1-2Hannover 96
- Hannover 962-01. FC Nürnberg
- 1. FC Nürnberg2-2Hannover 96
Frequently asked questions
Who will win 1. FC Nürnberg – Hannover 96?
Our model gives 1 · 1. FC Nürnberg a 45 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: 1. FC Nürnberg win 45 %, draw 25 %, Hannover 96 win 30 %.
What is the most likely score for 1. FC Nürnberg – Hannover 96?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
