Estrela
2-1
Braga
Estrela – Braga
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:42 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 49 %
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.17 – 1.37
The short version
Final score: Estrela 2-1 Braga. The model predicted a win for Braga (49 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.17 goals for Estrela and 1.37 for Braga. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 60 %. Over their last five matches, Estrela took 7 points and Braga 11 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Estrela, 3 draws, 2 wins for Braga. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Estrela | 5.88 | 16 % | +56.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.92 | 24 % | -2.9 % |
| 2Braga | 1.56 | 60 % | -23.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Estrela
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Braga
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Estrela
- 3 draws
- 2 wins
- Braga
- Braga2-2Estrela
- Estrela3-3Braga
- Estrela0-1Braga
- Braga1-1Estrela
- Braga3-0Estrela
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Estrela – Braga?
Final score: Estrela 2-1 Braga. The model predicted a win for Braga (49 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Estrela – Braga?
Our model gives 2 · Braga a 49 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Estrela win 27 %, draw 25 %, Braga win 49 %.