Predictions are closed for this match.
Estrela
09:15 PM
Sep 10
Braga
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Estrela | 5.88 | 16 % | +56.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.92 | 24 % | -2.9 % |
| 2Braga | 1.56 | 60 % | -23.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Estrela
Braga
| Estrela | Form and statistics | Braga |
|---|---|---|
| 1453 | Elo | 1737 |
| 1.40 | Goals scored / match | 1.50 |
| 1.70 | Goals conceded / match | 0.50 |
| 10.2 | Shots / match | 7.5 |
| 10 % | Win rate | 60 % |
| 5 | Rest days | 5 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:42 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Braga a 49 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Estrela win 27 %, draw 25 %, Braga win 49 %.
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 47 %, and both teams scoring at 52 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 5.88 for Estrela, 3.92 for the draw, 1.56 for Braga.
Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 09:15 PM (Primeira Liga), at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca.
The model leans towards Braga away from home (49 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.17 goals for Estrela and 1.37 for Braga. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 60 %. Over their last five matches, Estrela took 7 points and Braga 11 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Estrela, 3 draws, 2 wins for Braga. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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