Predictions are closed for this match.
Slavia Prague
09:00 PM
Sep 10
Lens
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Slavia Prague | 2.80 | 34 % | -40.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 27 % | -27.5 % |
| 2Lens | 2.38 | 40 % | +38.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Slavia Prague
Lens
| Slavia Prague | Form and statistics | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| 1534 | Elo | 1724 |
| 0.70 | Goals scored / match | 2.20 |
| 2.30 | Goals conceded / match | 1.30 |
| 13.1 | Shots / match | 17.2 |
| 0 % | Win rate | 50 % |
| 30 | Rest days | 5 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:42 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Lens a 58 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Slavia Prague win 21 %, draw 20 %, Lens win 58 %.
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 62 %, and both teams scoring at 62 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.80 for Slavia Prague, 3.55 for the draw, 2.38 for Lens.
Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 09:00 PM (Champions League), at Fortuna Arena.
The model leans towards Lens away from home (58 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.27 goals for Slavia Prague and 1.95 for Lens. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 40 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 2.38, the predicted outcome carries +38.3 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, Slavia Prague took 1 point and Lens 9 points. Over 2.5 goals: 62 %. Both teams to score: 62 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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