Moreirense
0-4
Benfica
Moreirense – Benfica
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:40 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 78 %
- Most likely score
- 0-211 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 0.80 – 2.75
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Moreirense 0-4 Benfica. The model predicted a win for Benfica (78 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-2. It expects 0.80 goals for Moreirense and 2.75 for Benfica. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 84 %. Over their last five matches, Moreirense took 5 points and Benfica 15 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Moreirense, 1 draw, 4 wins for Benfica. Over 2.5 goals: 69 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Moreirense | 16.00 | 6 % | +35.8 % |
| XDraw | 9.25 | 10 % | +28.3 % |
| 2Benfica | 1.11 | 84 % | -13.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Moreirense
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Benfica
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Moreirense
- 1 draw
- 4 wins
- Benfica
- Benfica4-1Moreirense
- Moreirense0-4Benfica
- Benfica3-2Moreirense
- Moreirense1-1Benfica
- Benfica3-0Moreirense
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Moreirense – Benfica?
Final score: Moreirense 0-4 Benfica. The model predicted a win for Benfica (78 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Moreirense – Benfica?
Our model gives 2 · Benfica a 78 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Moreirense win 8 %, draw 14 %, Benfica win 78 %.