Predictions are closed for this match.
Moreirense
09:45 PM
Sep 9
Benfica
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Moreirense | 16.00 | 6 % | +35.8 % |
| XDraw | 9.25 | 10 % | +28.3 % |
| 2Benfica | 1.11 | 84 % | -13.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Moreirense
Benfica
| Moreirense | Form and statistics | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| 1503 | Elo | 1845 |
| 1.00 | Goals scored / match | 3.30 |
| 1.70 | Goals conceded / match | 0.90 |
| 8.3 | Shots / match | 21.4 |
| 30 % | Win rate | 70 % |
| 5 | Rest days | 4 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:40 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Benfica a 78 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Moreirense win 8 %, draw 14 %, Benfica win 78 %.
The most likely score is 0-2, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 69 %, and both teams scoring at 52 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 16.00 for Moreirense, 9.25 for the draw, 1.11 for Benfica.
Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:45 PM (Primeira Liga), at Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
The model leans towards Benfica away from home (78 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-2. It expects 0.80 goals for Moreirense and 2.75 for Benfica. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 84 %. Over their last five matches, Moreirense took 5 points and Benfica 15 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Moreirense, 1 draw, 4 wins for Benfica. Over 2.5 goals: 69 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
Nobody has voted yet. Be the first.
