Monterrey
Pachuca
Monterrey – Pachuca
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 17, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 45 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.68 – 1.31
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57 %
- Both teams to score
- 60 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Monterrey at home (45 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.68 goals for Monterrey and 1.31 for Pachuca. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 56 %. Over their last five matches, Monterrey took 5 points and Pachuca 8 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Monterrey, 0 draws, 4 wins for Pachuca. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 60 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Monterrey | 1.66 | 56 % | -25.0 % |
| XDraw | 4.20 | 22 % | +9.7 % |
| 2Pachuca | 4.30 | 22 % | +23.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Monterrey
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Pachuca
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Monterrey
- 0 draws
- 4 wins
- Pachuca
- Monterrey1-3Pachuca
- Pachuca3-0Monterrey
- Monterrey1-2Pachuca
- Monterrey2-3Pachuca
- Pachuca0-1Monterrey
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Monterrey – Pachuca?
Our model gives 1 · Monterrey a 45 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Monterrey win 45 %, draw 26 %, Pachuca win 29 %.
What is the most likely score for Monterrey – Pachuca?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.