Predictions are closed for this match.
Chelsea
09:15 PM
Sep 9
Leeds United
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Chelsea | 1.80 | 51 % | -9.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.95 | 23 % | -11.1 % |
| 2Leeds United | 3.65 | 25 % | -1.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Chelsea
Leeds United
| Chelsea | Form and statistics | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| 1721 | Elo | 1709 |
| 1.60 | Goals scored / match | 1.20 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded / match | 1.00 |
| 13.3 | Shots / match | 11.5 |
| 50 % | Win rate | 40 % |
| 3 | Rest days | 4 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:40 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Chelsea a 51 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Chelsea win 51 %, draw 23 %, Leeds United win 27 %.
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 55 %, and both teams scoring at 56 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.80 for Chelsea, 3.95 for the draw, 3.65 for Leeds United.
Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:15 PM (League Cup), at Stamford Bridge.
The model leans towards Chelsea at home (51 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.76 goals for Chelsea and 1.13 for Leeds United. Bookmakers say the same thing: 51 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Chelsea took 9 points and Leeds United 8 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Chelsea, 1 draw, 1 win for Leeds United. Over 2.5 goals: 55 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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