Estudiantes de La Plata
San Lorenzo
Estudiantes de La Plata – San Lorenzo
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 17, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 62 %
- Most likely score
- 1-016 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.66 – 0.68
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41 %
- Both teams to score
- 40 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Estudiantes de La Plata at home (62 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.66 goals for Estudiantes de La Plata and 0.68 for San Lorenzo. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 43 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 2.15, the predicted outcome carries +33.5 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, Estudiantes de La Plata took 8 points and San Lorenzo 7 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Estudiantes de La Plata, 1 draw, 1 win for San Lorenzo. Over 2.5 goals: 41 %. Both teams to score: 40 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Estudiantes de La Plata | 2.15 | 43 % | +33.5 % |
| XDraw | 2.95 | 32 % | -25.1 % |
| 2San Lorenzo |
Form and statistics
Estudiantes de La Plata
- Last 5 matches
- At home
San Lorenzo
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Estudiantes de La Plata
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- San Lorenzo
- San Lorenzo1-0Estudiantes de La Plata
- San Lorenzo1-1Estudiantes de La Plata
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Estudiantes de La Plata – San Lorenzo?
Our model gives 1 · Estudiantes de La Plata a 62 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Estudiantes de La Plata win 62 %, draw 25 %, San Lorenzo win 13 %.
What is the most likely score for Estudiantes de La Plata – San Lorenzo?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 16 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.