Vila Nova
Novorizontino
Vila Nova – Novorizontino
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 17, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 36 %
- Most likely score
- 1-09 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.25 – 1.31
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Vila Nova at home (36 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.25 goals for Vila Nova and 1.31 for Novorizontino. Bookmakers say the same thing: 34 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Vila Nova took 13 points and Novorizontino 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Vila Nova, 1 draw, 3 wins for Novorizontino. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vila Nova | 2.75 | 34 % | -0.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.10 | 30 % | -6.5 % |
| 2Novorizontino | 2.60 | 36 % | -12.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Vila Nova
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Novorizontino
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Vila Nova
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Novorizontino
- Novorizontino2-1Vila Nova
- Novorizontino1-1Vila Nova
- Vila Nova0-1Novorizontino
- Novorizontino2-0Vila Nova
- Vila Nova2-1Novorizontino
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Vila Nova – Novorizontino?
Our model gives 1 · Vila Nova a 36 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Vila Nova win 36 %, draw 30 %, Novorizontino win 34 %.
What is the most likely score for Vila Nova – Novorizontino?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.