São Bernardo
Criciúma
São Bernardo – Criciúma
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 17, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 37 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.21 – 1.12
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41 %
- Both teams to score
- 48 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards São Bernardo at home (37 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.21 goals for São Bernardo and 1.12 for Criciúma. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 31 %. Over their last five matches, São Bernardo took 8 points and Criciúma 9 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for São Bernardo, 0 draws, 1 win for Criciúma. Over 2.5 goals: 41 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1São Bernardo | 2.95 | 31 % | +10.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.00 | 31 % | -10.8 % |
| 2Criciúma | 2.45 | 38 % | -19.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
São Bernardo
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Criciúma
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- São Bernardo
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Criciúma
- Criciúma1-0São Bernardo
Frequently asked questions
Who will win São Bernardo – Criciúma?
Our model gives 1 · São Bernardo a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: São Bernardo win 37 %, draw 30 %, Criciúma win 33 %.
What is the most likely score for São Bernardo – Criciúma?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.