Avaí
Athletic
Avaí – Athletic
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 17, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 40 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.27 – 1.13
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43 %
- Both teams to score
- 49 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Avaí at home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.27 goals for Avaí and 1.13 for Athletic. Bookmakers say the same thing: 43 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Avaí took 6 points and Athletic 3 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Avaí, 0 draws, 2 wins for Athletic. Over 2.5 goals: 43 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Avaí | 2.15 | 43 % | -14.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.00 | 31 % | -11.0 % |
| 2Athletic | 3.65 | 26 % | +11.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Avaí
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Athletic
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Avaí
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Athletic
- Athletic1-0Avaí
- Avaí2-1Athletic
- Athletic4-0Avaí
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Avaí – Athletic?
Our model gives 1 · Avaí a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Avaí win 40 %, draw 30 %, Athletic win 30 %.
What is the most likely score for Avaí – Athletic?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.