Grêmio
Cruzeiro
Grêmio – Cruzeiro
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 18, 07:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 44 %
- Most likely score
- 0-111 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.09 – 1.55
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Grêmio 2-4 Cruzeiro. The model predicted a win for Cruzeiro (44 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.09 goals for Grêmio and 1.55 for Cruzeiro. Bookmakers say the same thing: 40 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Grêmio took 3 points and Cruzeiro 9 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Grêmio, 1 draw, 4 wins for Cruzeiro. Over 2.5 goals: 49 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Grêmio | 2.85 | 33 % | -19.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 27 % | -1.9 % |
| 2Cruzeiro | 2.40 | 40 % | +5.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Grêmio
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Cruzeiro
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Grêmio
- 1 draw
- 4 wins
- Cruzeiro
- Cruzeiro2-0Grêmio
- Grêmio0-1Cruzeiro
- Cruzeiro4-1Grêmio
- Cruzeiro1-1Grêmio
- Grêmio0-2Cruzeiro
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Grêmio – Cruzeiro?
Final score: Grêmio 2-4 Cruzeiro. The model predicted a win for Cruzeiro (44 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Grêmio – Cruzeiro?
Our model gives 2 · Cruzeiro a 44 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Grêmio win 28 %, draw 28 %, Cruzeiro win 44 %.