Fluminense
Santos
Fluminense – Santos
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 18, 07:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 51 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.70 – 1.13
The short version
Final score: Fluminense 1-2 Santos. The model predicted a win for Fluminense (51 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.70 goals for Fluminense and 1.13 for Santos. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 40 %. Over their last five matches, Fluminense took 6 points and Santos 10 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Fluminense, 1 draw, 0 wins for Santos. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fluminense | 2.35 | 40 % | +20.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.40 | 28 % | -17.6 % |
| 2Santos | 2.95 | 32 % | -27.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Fluminense
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Santos
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Fluminense
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Santos
- Santos2-3Fluminense
- Santos0-0Fluminense
- Fluminense1-0Santos
- Santos0-3Fluminense
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Fluminense – Santos?
Final score: Fluminense 1-2 Santos. The model predicted a win for Fluminense (51 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Fluminense – Santos?
Our model gives 1 · Fluminense a 51 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Fluminense win 51 %, draw 24 %, Santos win 25 %.