Racing Club
Independiente
Racing Club – Independiente
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 17, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 43 %
- Most likely score
- 1-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.30 – 0.98
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40 %
- Both teams to score
- 46 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Racing Club at home (43 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.30 goals for Racing Club and 0.98 for Independiente. Bookmakers say the same thing: 45 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Racing Club took 6 points and Independiente 8 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Racing Club, 3 draws, 1 win for Independiente. Over 2.5 goals: 40 %. Both teams to score: 46 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Racing Club | 2.10 | 45 % | -10.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.15 | 30 % | -6.9 % |
| 2Independiente | 3.65 | 26 % | +1.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Racing Club
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Independiente
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Racing Club
- 3 draws
- 1 win
- Independiente
- Independiente1-0Racing Club
- Racing Club0-0Independiente
- Independiente1-1Racing Club
- Racing Club0-0Independiente
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Racing Club – Independiente?
Our model gives 1 · Racing Club a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Racing Club win 43 %, draw 30 %, Independiente win 28 %.
What is the most likely score for Racing Club – Independiente?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.