Predictions are closed for this match.
Sporting CP
09:00 PM
Sep 9
Galatasaray
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sporting CP | 1.60 | 59 % | -0.6 % |
| XDraw | 4.32 | 22 % | -30.3 % |
| 2Galatasaray | 4.88 | 19 % | +5.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Sporting CP
Galatasaray
| Sporting CP | Form and statistics | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| 1862 | Elo | 1771 |
| 2.90 | Goals scored / match | 2.30 |
| 1.10 | Goals conceded / match | 1.50 |
| 16.2 | Shots / match | 18.7 |
| 70 % | Win rate | 60 % |
| 3 | Rest days | 5 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:40 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Sporting CP a 62 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Sporting CP win 62 %, draw 16 %, Galatasaray win 22 %.
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 72 %, and both teams scoring at 67 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.60 for Sporting CP, 4.32 for the draw, 4.88 for Galatasaray.
Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:00 PM (Champions League), at Estádio José Alvalade.
The model leans towards Sporting CP at home (62 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.38 goals for Sporting CP and 1.33 for Galatasaray. Bookmakers say the same thing: 59 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Sporting CP took 13 points and Galatasaray 10 points. Over 2.5 goals: 72 %. Both teams to score: 67 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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