Real Madrid
Sevilla
Real Madrid – Sevilla
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 17, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 75 %
- Most likely score
- 2-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.38 – 0.84
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Real Madrid at home (75 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.38 goals for Real Madrid and 0.84 for Sevilla. Bookmakers say the same thing: 77 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Real Madrid took 12 points and Sevilla 8 points. In recent meetings: 5 wins for Real Madrid, 0 draws, 0 wins for Sevilla. Over 2.5 goals: 63 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Real Madrid | 1.23 | 77 % | -7.4 % |
| XDraw | 6.50 | 15 % | +1.5 % |
| 2Sevilla | 11.00 | 9 % | +0.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Real Madrid
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Sevilla
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 5 wins
- Real Madrid
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Sevilla
- Sevilla0-1Real Madrid
- Real Madrid2-0Sevilla
- Sevilla0-2Real Madrid
- Real Madrid4-2Sevilla
- Real Madrid1-0Sevilla
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Real Madrid – Sevilla?
Our model gives 1 · Real Madrid a 75 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Real Madrid win 75 %, draw 16 %, Sevilla win 9 %.
What is the most likely score for Real Madrid – Sevilla?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.