Burgos
CD Sabadell
Burgos – CD Sabadell
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 17, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 43 %
- Most likely score
- 1-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.28 – 0.99
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40 %
- Both teams to score
- 46 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Burgos at home (43 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.28 goals for Burgos and 0.99 for CD Sabadell. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 36 %. Over their last five matches, Burgos took 9 points and CD Sabadell 8 points. Over 2.5 goals: 40 %. Both teams to score: 46 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Burgos | 2.60 | 36 % | +10.5 % |
| XDraw | 2.95 | 32 % | -8.3 % |
| 2CD Sabadell | 2.90 | 32 % | -23.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Burgos
- Last 5 matches
- At home
CD Sabadell
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Burgos – CD Sabadell?
Our model gives 1 · Burgos a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Burgos win 43 %, draw 31 %, CD Sabadell win 26 %.
What is the most likely score for Burgos – CD Sabadell?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.