Liverpool
09:00 PM
Sep 9
Atlético Madrid
Liverpool – Atlético Madrid
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:40 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.01 – 1.17
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62 %
- Both teams to score
- 60 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Liverpool at home (57 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.01 goals for Liverpool and 1.17 for Atlético Madrid. Bookmakers say the same thing: 55 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Liverpool took 6 points and Atlético Madrid 7 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Liverpool, 0 draws, 0 wins for Atlético Madrid. Over 2.5 goals: 62 %. Both teams to score: 60 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Liverpool | 1.74 | 55 % | -0.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.90 | 24 % | -25.2 % |
| 2Atlético Madrid | 4.50 | 21 % | +6.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Liverpool
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Atlético Madrid
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Liverpool | Form and statistics | Atlético Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| 1765 | Elo | 1764 |
| 1.70 | Goals scored / match | 1.30 |
| 1.70 | Goals conceded / match | 1.40 |
| 15.5 | Shots / match | 14.1 |
| 30 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Liverpool
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Atlético Madrid
- Liverpool3-2Atlético Madrid
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Liverpool – Atlético Madrid?
Our model gives 1 · Liverpool a 57 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Liverpool win 57 %, draw 19 %, Atlético Madrid win 24 %.
What is the most likely score for Liverpool – Atlético Madrid?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
