PAOK
Iraklis
PAOK – Iraklis
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 17, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 71 %
- Most likely score
- 2-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.13 – 0.75
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55 %
- Both teams to score
- 47 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards PAOK at home (71 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.13 goals for PAOK and 0.75 for Iraklis. Bookmakers say the same thing: 75 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, PAOK took 9 points and Iraklis 9 points. Over 2.5 goals: 55 %. Both teams to score: 47 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1PAOK | 1.23 | 75 % | -12.4 % |
| XDraw | 5.75 | 16 % | +7.4 % |
| 2Iraklis | 10.50 | 9 % | +6.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
PAOK
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Iraklis
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win PAOK – Iraklis?
Our model gives 1 · PAOK a 71 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: PAOK win 71 %, draw 19 %, Iraklis win 10 %.
What is the most likely score for PAOK – Iraklis?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.