NEC Nijmegen
Fortuna Sittard
NEC Nijmegen – Fortuna Sittard
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 17, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 59 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.04 – 1.06
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60 %
- Both teams to score
- 57 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards NEC Nijmegen at home (59 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.04 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.06 for Fortuna Sittard. Bookmakers say the same thing: 58 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, NEC Nijmegen took 3 points and Fortuna Sittard 10 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for NEC Nijmegen, 1 draw, 2 wins for Fortuna Sittard. Over 2.5 goals: 60 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1NEC Nijmegen | 1.62 | 58 % | -3.7 % |
| XDraw | 4.30 | 22 % | -2.5 % |
| 2Fortuna Sittard | 4.50 | 21 % | -19.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
NEC Nijmegen
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Fortuna Sittard
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- NEC Nijmegen
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Fortuna Sittard
- NEC Nijmegen2-3Fortuna Sittard
- Fortuna Sittard3-2NEC Nijmegen
- NEC Nijmegen4-1Fortuna Sittard
- Fortuna Sittard0-3NEC Nijmegen
- Fortuna Sittard1-1NEC Nijmegen
Frequently asked questions
Who will win NEC Nijmegen – Fortuna Sittard?
Our model gives 1 · NEC Nijmegen a 59 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: NEC Nijmegen win 59 %, draw 23 %, Fortuna Sittard win 18 %.
What is the most likely score for NEC Nijmegen – Fortuna Sittard?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.