Málaga
Real Sociedad
Málaga – Real Sociedad
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 18, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 37 %
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.24 – 1.28
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Málaga 2-5 Real Sociedad. The model predicted a win for Real Sociedad (37 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.24 goals for Málaga and 1.28 for Real Sociedad. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 45 %. Over their last five matches, Málaga took 3 points and Real Sociedad 7 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Málaga, 0 draws, 1 win for Real Sociedad. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Málaga | 3.40 | 28 % | +16.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 27 % | +1.2 % |
| 2Real Sociedad | 2.15 | 45 % | -21.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Málaga
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Real Sociedad
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Málaga
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Real Sociedad
- Málaga0-1Real Sociedad
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Málaga – Real Sociedad?
Final score: Málaga 2-5 Real Sociedad. The model predicted a win for Real Sociedad (37 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Málaga – Real Sociedad?
Our model gives 2 · Real Sociedad a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Málaga win 34 %, draw 29 %, Real Sociedad win 37 %.