Real Valladolid
Eldense
Real Valladolid – Eldense
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 17, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 44 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.35 – 1.06
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43 %
- Both teams to score
- 49 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Real Valladolid at home (44 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.35 goals for Real Valladolid and 1.06 for Eldense. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 50 %. Over their last five matches, Real Valladolid took 8 points and Eldense 9 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Real Valladolid, 0 draws, 0 wins for Eldense. Over 2.5 goals: 43 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Real Valladolid | 1.86 | 50 % | -17.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.45 | 27 % | -2.6 % |
| 2Eldense | 4.20 | 22 % | +15.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Real Valladolid
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Eldense
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Real Valladolid
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Eldense
- Real Valladolid1-0Eldense
- Eldense0-1Real Valladolid
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Real Valladolid – Eldense?
Our model gives 1 · Real Valladolid a 44 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Real Valladolid win 44 %, draw 28 %, Eldense win 28 %.
What is the most likely score for Real Valladolid – Eldense?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.