Parken Stadium
F.C. København
AGF
F.C. København – AGF
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 17, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 69 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.37 – 1.01
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66 %
- Both teams to score
- 58 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards F.C. København at home (69 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.37 goals for F.C. København and 1.01 for AGF. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 57 %. Over their last five matches, F.C. København took 12 points and AGF 5 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for F.C. København, 1 draw, 2 wins for AGF. Over 2.5 goals: 66 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1F.C. København | 1.64 | 57 % | +13.6 % |
| XDraw | 4.10 | 23 % | -22.0 % |
| 2AGF | 4.60 | 20 % | -46.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
F.C. København
- Last 5 matches
- At home
AGF
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- F.C. København
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- AGF
- AGF2-0F.C. København
- F.C. København2-3AGF
- AGF1-3F.C. København
- F.C. København3-1AGF
- AGF1-1F.C. København
Frequently asked questions
Who will win F.C. København – AGF?
Our model gives 1 · F.C. København a 69 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: F.C. København win 69 %, draw 19 %, AGF win 12 %.
What is the most likely score for F.C. København – AGF?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.