AC Milan
Atalanta
AC Milan – Atalanta
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 17, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 48 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.52 – 1.07
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards AC Milan at home (48 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.52 goals for AC Milan and 1.07 for Atalanta. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 53 %. Over their last five matches, AC Milan took 8 points and Atalanta 6 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for AC Milan, 2 draws, 3 wins for Atalanta. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1AC Milan | 1.75 | 53 % | -16.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.75 | 25 % | +4.1 % |
| 2Atalanta | 4.25 | 22 % | +3.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
AC Milan
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Atalanta
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- AC Milan
- 2 draws
- 3 wins
- Atalanta
- AC Milan2-3Atalanta
- Atalanta1-1AC Milan
- AC Milan0-1Atalanta
- Atalanta2-1AC Milan
- AC Milan1-1Atalanta
Frequently asked questions
Who will win AC Milan – Atalanta?
Our model gives 1 · AC Milan a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: AC Milan win 48 %, draw 28 %, Atalanta win 24 %.
What is the most likely score for AC Milan – Atalanta?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.