Nottingham Forest
Arsenal
Nottingham Forest – Arsenal
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 17, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 54 %
- Most likely score
- 0-111 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.00 – 1.70
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Arsenal away from home (54 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.00 goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.70 for Arsenal. Bookmakers say the same thing: 59 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Nottingham Forest took 5 points and Arsenal 12 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Nottingham Forest, 2 draws, 3 wins for Arsenal. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nottingham Forest | 5.75 | 17 % | +11.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.88 | 25 % | +2.0 % |
| 2Arsenal | 1.62 | 59 % | -12.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Nottingham Forest
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Arsenal
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Nottingham Forest
- 2 draws
- 3 wins
- Arsenal
- Nottingham Forest0-0Arsenal
- Arsenal3-0Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest0-0Arsenal
- Arsenal3-0Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest1-2Arsenal
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Nottingham Forest – Arsenal?
Our model gives 2 · Arsenal a 54 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Nottingham Forest win 19 %, draw 26 %, Arsenal win 54 %.
What is the most likely score for Nottingham Forest – Arsenal?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.