Paris FC
Stade Rennais
Paris FC – Stade Rennais
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 17, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 41 %
- Most likely score
- 1-09 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.42 – 1.27
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Paris FC at home (41 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.42 goals for Paris FC and 1.27 for Stade Rennais. Bookmakers say the same thing: 42 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Paris FC took 10 points and Stade Rennais 10 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Paris FC, 0 draws, 2 wins for Stade Rennais. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Paris FC | 2.27 | 42 % | -6.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 27 % | -2.9 % |
| 2Stade Rennais | 3.08 | 31 % | -3.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Paris FC
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Stade Rennais
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Paris FC
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Stade Rennais
- Stade Rennais2-1Paris FC
- Paris FC0-1Stade Rennais
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Paris FC – Stade Rennais?
Our model gives 1 · Paris FC a 41 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Paris FC win 41 %, draw 28 %, Stade Rennais win 31 %.
What is the most likely score for Paris FC – Stade Rennais?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.