Cesena
US Avellino
Cesena – US Avellino
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 17, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 38 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.25 – 1.14
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43 %
- Both teams to score
- 49 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Cesena at home (38 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.25 goals for Cesena and 1.14 for US Avellino. Bookmakers say the same thing: 41 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Cesena took 6 points and US Avellino 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Cesena, 0 draws, 1 win for US Avellino. Over 2.5 goals: 43 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cesena | 2.30 | 41 % | -11.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.15 | 30 % | -1.6 % |
| 2US Avellino | 3.20 | 29 % | -2.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Cesena
- Last 5 matches
- At home
US Avellino
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Cesena
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- US Avellino
- US Avellino3-1Cesena
- Cesena3-0US Avellino
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Cesena – US Avellino?
Our model gives 1 · Cesena a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Cesena win 38 %, draw 31 %, US Avellino win 30 %.
What is the most likely score for Cesena – US Avellino?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.