Jotun Arena
Sandefjord
Lillestrom
Sandefjord – Lillestrom
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 17, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 53 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.75 – 1.06
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53 %
- Both teams to score
- 54 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Sandefjord at home (53 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.75 goals for Sandefjord and 1.06 for Lillestrom. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 36 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 2.60, the predicted outcome carries +37.3 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, Sandefjord took 6 points and Lillestrom 5 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Sandefjord, 0 draws, 3 wins for Lillestrom. Over 2.5 goals: 53 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sandefjord | 2.60 | 36 % | +37.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 26 % | -9.8 % |
| 2Lillestrom | 2.50 |
Form and statistics
Sandefjord
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Lillestrom
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Sandefjord
- 0 draws
- 3 wins
- Lillestrom
- Lillestrom3-1Sandefjord
- Lillestrom0-3Sandefjord
- Sandefjord0-1Lillestrom
- Sandefjord1-0Lillestrom
- Lillestrom4-2Sandefjord
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Sandefjord – Lillestrom?
Our model gives 1 · Sandefjord a 53 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Sandefjord win 53 %, draw 25 %, Lillestrom win 22 %.
What is the most likely score for Sandefjord – Lillestrom?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.