SK Sturm Graz
Grazer AK
SK Sturm Graz – Grazer AK
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 17, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 65 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.87 – 0.83
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51 %
- Both teams to score
- 48 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards SK Sturm Graz at home (65 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.87 goals for SK Sturm Graz and 0.83 for Grazer AK. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 52 %. Over their last five matches, SK Sturm Graz took 7 points and Grazer AK 6 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for SK Sturm Graz, 0 draws, 0 wins for Grazer AK. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1SK Sturm Graz | 1.80 | 52 % | +16.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.80 | 25 % | -18.4 % |
| 2Grazer AK | 4.00 | 23 % | -44.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
SK Sturm Graz
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Grazer AK
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 4 wins
- SK Sturm Graz
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Grazer AK
- SK Sturm Graz2-1Grazer AK
- Grazer AK0-3SK Sturm Graz
- Grazer AK1-2SK Sturm Graz
- SK Sturm Graz5-2Grazer AK
Frequently asked questions
Who will win SK Sturm Graz – Grazer AK?
Our model gives 1 · SK Sturm Graz a 65 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: SK Sturm Graz win 65 %, draw 21 %, Grazer AK win 14 %.
What is the most likely score for SK Sturm Graz – Grazer AK?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.