Celtic
Heart of Midlothian
Celtic – Heart of Midlothian
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 17, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 58 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.13 – 1.16
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64 %
- Both teams to score
- 61 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Celtic at home (58 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.13 goals for Celtic and 1.16 for Heart of Midlothian. Bookmakers say the same thing: 60 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Celtic took 6 points and Heart of Midlothian 8 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Celtic, 1 draw, 2 wins for Heart of Midlothian. Over 2.5 goals: 64 %. Both teams to score: 61 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Celtic | 1.55 | 60 % | -9.6 % |
| XDraw | 4.55 | 21 % | -7.3 % |
| 2Heart of Midlothian | 4.85 | 19 % | +3.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Celtic
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Heart of Midlothian
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Celtic
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Heart of Midlothian
- Celtic3-1Heart of Midlothian
- Heart of Midlothian2-2Celtic
- Celtic1-2Heart of Midlothian
- Heart of Midlothian3-1Celtic
- Celtic3-0Heart of Midlothian
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Celtic – Heart of Midlothian?
Our model gives 1 · Celtic a 58 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Celtic win 58 %, draw 20 %, Heart of Midlothian win 21 %.
What is the most likely score for Celtic – Heart of Midlothian?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.