Bayer Leverkusen
SC Freiburg
Bayer Leverkusen – SC Freiburg
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 17, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 57 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.27 – 1.32
- Over 2.5 goals
- 70 %
- Both teams to score
- 66 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Bayer Leverkusen at home (57 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.27 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.32 for SC Freiburg. Bookmakers say the same thing: 56 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Bayer Leverkusen took 13 points and SC Freiburg 13 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Bayer Leverkusen, 2 draws, 0 wins for SC Freiburg. Over 2.5 goals: 70 %. Both teams to score: 66 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bayer Leverkusen | 1.68 | 56 % | -4.9 % |
| XDraw | 4.20 | 22 % | -8.4 % |
| 2SC Freiburg | 4.22 | 22 % | -9.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Bayer Leverkusen
- Last 5 matches
- At home
SC Freiburg
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Bayer Leverkusen
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- SC Freiburg
- SC Freiburg3-3Bayer Leverkusen
- Bayer Leverkusen2-0SC Freiburg
- SC Freiburg2-2Bayer Leverkusen
- Bayer Leverkusen5-1SC Freiburg
- SC Freiburg2-3Bayer Leverkusen
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Bayer Leverkusen – SC Freiburg?
Our model gives 1 · Bayer Leverkusen a 57 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Bayer Leverkusen win 57 %, draw 22 %, SC Freiburg win 22 %.
What is the most likely score for Bayer Leverkusen – SC Freiburg?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.