Norwich City
08:45 PM
Sep 9
Birmingham City
Norwich City – Birmingham City
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:40 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.63 – 1.10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51 %
- Both teams to score
- 54 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Norwich City at home (51 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.63 goals for Norwich City and 1.10 for Birmingham City. Bookmakers say the same thing: 50 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Norwich City took 9 points and Birmingham City 6 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Norwich City, 0 draws, 3 wins for Birmingham City. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Norwich City | 1.91 | 50 % | -2.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.60 | 26 % | -7.8 % |
| 2Birmingham City | 3.90 | 24 % | -8.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Norwich City
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Birmingham City
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Norwich City | Form and statistics | Birmingham City |
|---|---|---|
| 1534 | Elo | 1493 |
| 1.80 | Goals scored / match | 1.40 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded / match | 1.50 |
| 16.1 | Shots / match | 11.4 |
| 50 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Norwich City
- 0 draws
- 3 wins
- Birmingham City
- Norwich City1-2Birmingham City
- Birmingham City4-1Norwich City
- Birmingham City1-0Norwich City
- Norwich City2-0Birmingham City
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Norwich City – Birmingham City?
Our model gives 1 · Norwich City a 51 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Norwich City win 51 %, draw 26 %, Birmingham City win 23 %.
What is the most likely score for Norwich City – Birmingham City?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
