Sarpsborg Stadion
Sarpsborg FK
Rosenborg
Sarpsborg FK – Rosenborg
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 17, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 43 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.39 – 1.78
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61 %
- Both teams to score
- 63 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Rosenborg away from home (43 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.39 goals for Sarpsborg FK and 1.78 for Rosenborg. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 35 %. Over their last five matches, Sarpsborg FK took 6 points and Rosenborg 10 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Sarpsborg FK, 2 draws, 1 win for Rosenborg. Over 2.5 goals: 61 %. Both teams to score: 63 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sarpsborg FK | 2.30 | 41 % | -27.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.85 | 24 % | -4.6 % |
| 2Rosenborg | 2.65 | 35 % | +15.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Sarpsborg FK
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Rosenborg
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Sarpsborg FK
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Rosenborg
- Rosenborg2-1Sarpsborg FK
- Rosenborg2-3Sarpsborg FK
- Sarpsborg FK2-2Rosenborg
- Rosenborg1-1Sarpsborg FK
- Sarpsborg FK4-1Rosenborg
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Sarpsborg FK – Rosenborg?
Our model gives 2 · Rosenborg a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Sarpsborg FK win 32 %, draw 25 %, Rosenborg win 43 %.
What is the most likely score for Sarpsborg FK – Rosenborg?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.