Derby County
0-1
West Bromwich Albion
Derby County – West Bromwich Albion
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:40 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 38 %
- Most likely score
- 0-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.30 – 1.35
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Derby County 0-1 West Bromwich Albion. The model predicted a win for West Bromwich Albion (38 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.30 goals for Derby County and 1.35 for West Bromwich Albion. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 44 %. Over their last five matches, Derby County took 4 points and West Bromwich Albion 7 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Derby County, 2 draws, 0 wins for West Bromwich Albion. Over 2.5 goals: 49 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Derby County | 3.42 | 27 % | +18.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.33 | 28 % | -7.7 % |
| 2West Bromwich Albion | 2.13 | 44 % | -19.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Derby County
- Last 5 matches
- At home
West Bromwich Albion
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Derby County
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- West Bromwich Albion
- Derby County1-1West Bromwich Albion
- West Bromwich Albion0-1Derby County
- West Bromwich Albion1-1Derby County
- West Bromwich Albion1-3Derby County
- Derby County2-1West Bromwich Albion
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Derby County – West Bromwich Albion?
Final score: Derby County 0-1 West Bromwich Albion. The model predicted a win for West Bromwich Albion (38 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Derby County – West Bromwich Albion?
Our model gives 2 · West Bromwich Albion a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Derby County win 34 %, draw 28 %, West Bromwich Albion win 38 %.