Västerås SK
Mjällby AIF
Västerås SK – Mjällby AIF
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 17, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 41 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.54 – 1.17
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Västerås SK at home (41 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.54 goals for Västerås SK and 1.17 for Mjällby AIF. Bookmakers say the same thing: 39 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Västerås SK took 9 points and Mjällby AIF 6 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Västerås SK, 1 draw, 1 win for Mjällby AIF. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Västerås SK | 2.40 | 39 % | -1.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.45 | 27 % | -1.5 % |
| 2Mjällby AIF | 2.75 | 34 % | -16.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Västerås SK
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Mjällby AIF
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Västerås SK
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Mjällby AIF
- Mjällby AIF0-0Västerås SK
- Mjällby AIF2-1Västerås SK
- Västerås SK2-1Mjällby AIF
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Västerås SK – Mjällby AIF?
Our model gives 1 · Västerås SK a 41 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Västerås SK win 41 %, draw 29 %, Mjällby AIF win 30 %.
What is the most likely score for Västerås SK – Mjällby AIF?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.