IK Sirius
IF Elfsborg
IK Sirius – IF Elfsborg
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 17, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 50 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.71 – 1.26
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57 %
- Both teams to score
- 59 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards IK Sirius at home (50 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.71 goals for IK Sirius and 1.26 for IF Elfsborg. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 44 %. Over their last five matches, IK Sirius took 12 points and IF Elfsborg 12 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for IK Sirius, 0 draws, 2 wins for IF Elfsborg. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1IK Sirius | 2.10 | 44 % | +4.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 26 % | -13.6 % |
| 2IF Elfsborg | 3.20 | 29 % | -17.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
IK Sirius
- Last 5 matches
- At home
IF Elfsborg
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- IK Sirius
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- IF Elfsborg
- IF Elfsborg1-3IK Sirius
- IK Sirius4-0IF Elfsborg
- IF Elfsborg4-3IK Sirius
- IK Sirius4-1IF Elfsborg
- IF Elfsborg2-0IK Sirius
Frequently asked questions
Who will win IK Sirius – IF Elfsborg?
Our model gives 1 · IK Sirius a 50 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: IK Sirius win 50 %, draw 24 %, IF Elfsborg win 26 %.
What is the most likely score for IK Sirius – IF Elfsborg?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.