Barcelona
06:45 PM
Sep 9
Feyenoord Rotterdam
Barcelona – Feyenoord Rotterdam
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:40 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 3-09 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 3.30 – 0.93
- Over 2.5 goals
- 79 %
- Both teams to score
- 58 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Barcelona at home (82 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 3-0. It expects 3.30 goals for Barcelona and 0.93 for Feyenoord Rotterdam. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 89 %. Over their last five matches, Barcelona took 12 points and Feyenoord Rotterdam 11 points. Over 2.5 goals: 79 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Barcelona | 1.07 | 89 % | -12.3 % |
| XDraw | 13.00 | 7 % | +37.1 % |
| 2Feyenoord Rotterdam | 24.50 | 4 % | +84.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Barcelona
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Feyenoord Rotterdam
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Barcelona | Form and statistics | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| 1935 | Elo | 1683 |
| 2.70 | Goals scored / match | 2.20 |
| 0.80 | Goals conceded / match | 1.10 |
| 15.4 | Shots / match | 18.1 |
| 80 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Barcelona – Feyenoord Rotterdam?
Our model gives 1 · Barcelona a 82 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Barcelona win 82 %, draw 11 %, Feyenoord Rotterdam win 8 %.
What is the most likely score for Barcelona – Feyenoord Rotterdam?
The most likely score is 3-0, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
